stock market

Before Fridays Turned Black - The Day After Thanksgiving 1999

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(When the collective psyche was overrun by Pokemon)

Only ten years ago - the Friday after Thanksgiving 1999. In retrospect, not much has changed, if you discount the Christmas ads starting just before Halloween, the lines forming in front of shopping malls and Walmarts before midnight - the twenty-four hour shopping, the conspicuous consumption, the unemployment, the numbers of bankrupt stores.

No, in 1999 it was considered an event, the real conspicuous consumption would take place ten days before Christmas as it always had. In 1999 consumer confidence was high, the stock market was barreling towards 10,000 and online shopping was a nice idea, but would never replace good ol' retail.

Lou Miliano (CBS News): “This is no longer the busiest shopping day over recent years. Most purchasing has been done ten days prior to Christmas. This has become more of an event. And with unemployment down and stock prices up and consumer confidence strong, retailers are hoping it’s an event that leads to a 5-6% increase in sales.”

Black Friday hadn't been invented yet - the world was dealing with Pokemon and the dreaded Y2K, just around the corner.

Times change, and in strange ways.



Mike's Blog Round Up

Amygdala: Changing attitudes toward mental illness.

Lance Mannion: Stupak and the bishops, the bishops and me.

Sadly, No: Nothing will make them happy.

TBogg: Atlas begs.

Pam's House Blend: Tradishinul marridge is what brings us together today.

Thump and Whip: Glenn Beck doesn't identify as white, or speak for "white America" – except when he does.

James Wolcott: It takes more than a market rally to pull the wool over Bolton's mustache.

Guest post by Batocchio. Mike is back tomorrow. Send tips to Finnsagain AT aol DOT com.


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For anyone who hasn't seen this, I thought it was worth sharing. From Alan Grayson's You Tube page "Rep. Alan Grayson asking Federal Reserve General Counsel Scott Alvarez about the Fed's independence" on Sept. 25, 2009.

Also there is a really wonderful diary up at Daily KOS by davidkc with more on Grayson's background. I highly recommend reading it-- Alan Grayson Shows Dems How to Play Hardball.

The more I read about this man, the more I like him. As the KOS diary points to, the St. Petersburg Times published a lengthy profile of Congressman Grayson and here are a few portions that I thought were worth sharing.

But a leading opponent has not yet emerged, and Grayson, the 12th-wealthiest member of Congress, has resources to defend himself. He spent $2 million of his own money on the 2008 campaign. (The "die quickly" speech has triggered $150,000 in contributions, his office says.) And his district has shifted from slightly Republican to slightly Democratic.

"It's no coincidence the National Republican Congressional Committee has named me as the No. 1 target next year," Grayson said. "We're working hard, getting things done."

Swagger courses through Grayson's every word, delivered in the accent of his Bronx upbringing and with the exacting nature of a lawyer who first made his name taking on — and taking down — contractors and war profiteers in Iraq.

"I don't need the job for income or satisfaction," said Grayson, sitting on a bench outside the House chamber in between votes. "The truth is, it's really a hardship. I took an enormous pay cut to take the job. Every week, I leave five young children and my wife to come up here.

"I don't owe anything to anyone here. I don't owe anything to lobbyists. I don't owe anything to leadership. The only thing I owe to anybody is the well-being of 800,000 people who depend on me."

[....]

That self-assurance is best captured on the Financial Services Committee, where he has aggressively interrogated Federal Reserve officials and financial executives on federal bailouts and the economic morass.

In a memorable exchange, Grayson laughs at Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as he tries to explain why the government would loan $500 billion to foreign banks.

The performances have made Grayson an Internet sensation, a champion for a public buried under credit card debt and foreclosures. "Alan Grayson. Wow," wrote a commenter on a YouTube video of him questioning Bernanke. "The only thing that would make this video better is if Grayson body-slammed Bernanke through a hardwood table."

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Turns out Matt Taibbi is already acquainted with Rep. Alan Grayson. Here's his backstory ((and remember, reward good behavior):

Alan Grayson, Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul and others keep hammering away at this whole Fed-secrecy issue, and every now and then we get some pretty interesting exchanges. Zero Hedge relates this one between Grayson and Fed counsel Scott Alvarez. It’s becoming abundantly clear that at some point we’re going to start to hear details about monstrous front-running operations involving the major banks on Wall Street.

I recommend that everyone watch this clip just for the sheer entertainment value. I have personal experience with… well, let’s call it the unique personality of Alan Grayson. In his capacity as an attorney he once basically threatened to have me dismembered and have my body parts dumped in a tin canister and fired into the center of a burning supernova. And that’s actually underselling the real language he used.

We were having a disagreement about the use of information given to me by a certain source in a story about military contracting, and in the middle of what had been a normal contentious argument between two sane adults, dude suddenly assumed this crazy monster-voice and just went medieval on me. He was roaring into the telephone about how he was going to crush me, how I was going to wish I had never messed with him, how I didn’t know who the hell I was dealing with, and so on. One phrase I remember in particular was, “I am going to strip the bark off of you!” It came totally out of the blue and it was like being on the telephone with a metamorphosing werewolf — the whole performance genuinely freaked me out. I may even have peed a little, I can’t remember.

When I heard Alan Grayson was running for Congress, I remember thinking to myself, That Alan Grayson? The lunatic? It can’t be, I thought. I kept imagining trails of half-eaten sheep leading to his campaign appearances. But it turned out to be true. And when I checked, his platform turned out to be quite sane and even kind of interesting. Then he got elected and I suddenly started seeing his name attached to all of these calls for transparency, various crusades for FinReg reforms, etc.

And now every time I see Alan Grayson, he’s tearing some freaked-out bureaucrat a new a**hole in the middle of some empty conference room in the Capitol somewhere. I see the looks on the faces of these poor souls and I know exactly what they’re going through. Which is just hilarious, frankly. Especially since these people all tend to deserve it, like this nebbishy little creep Alvarez quite obviously does.

Now for most of last year Grayson’s public appearances didn’t rate any higher than a five or maybe a six on the craziness scale, but he’s a definite seven in this clip, trending toward eight. Watch Alvarez look around nervously, like he’s not sure whether to say something about how out of control Grayson is. He’s looking around like he expects someone to come out with a butterfly net and capture Grayson, so he can get back to lunch. But no help comes. Very entertaining stuff.


More Evidence Found Of Goldman Sachs' Blood Funnel

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(h/t Heather)

I saw Bill Maher offer Matt Taibbi some pushback last night about his Rolling Stone piece on Goldman Sachs. Maher wasn't willing to believe that Goldman has been uniquely positioned to profit from the breakdown of the financial system and the various bubbles created. Maher offered the predictable "why just Goldman" response, and Taibbi decided to talk about the many Goldman officials in high positions in the government. He could have just pointed to this story that leaped from Zero Hedge to the New York Times yesterday.

It is the hot new thing on Wall Street, a way for a handful of traders to master the stock market, peek at investors’ orders and, critics say, even subtly manipulate share prices.

It is called high-frequency trading — and it is suddenly one of the most talked-about and mysterious forces in the markets [...]

Nearly everyone on Wall Street is wondering how hedge funds and large banks like Goldman Sachs are making so much money so soon after the financial system nearly collapsed. High-frequency trading is one answer.

And when a former Goldman Sachs programmer was accused this month of stealing secret computer codes — software that a federal prosecutor said could “manipulate markets in unfair ways” — it only added to the mystery. Goldman acknowledges that it profits from high-frequency trading, but disputes that it has an unfair advantage.

Yet high-frequency specialists clearly have an edge over typical traders, let alone ordinary investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission says it is examining certain aspects of the strategy.

“This is where all the money is getting made,” said William H. Donaldson, former chairman and chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange and today an adviser to a big hedge fund. “If an individual investor doesn’t have the means to keep up, they’re at a huge disadvantage.”

They literally place their super-fast computers physically close to the machines that govern NYSE trades, to get the jump on competitors and make enough pennies off of the brief ups and downs of stocks to rake in mounds of cash. And in some cases, investors can buy access to buy and sell order information on certain exchanges that can be used to make these quick orders. When Chuck Schumer is calling for an investigation of Wall Street, you know something has gone horribly wrong.

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Mike's Blog Roundup

abu mugawama: Good News from Pakistan! The Taliban's strategic communications reek almost as bad as ours!

Pruning Shears: This Week In Tyranny

Daily Kos: Ghetto Loans and the latest sub-prime scandal

Alas, a blog: Under the rules of engagement developed in the Bush Administration, we can waterboard Scott Roeder

TBogg: A guy who worked in the BUSHCO Office of Legal Counsel weighs in on blogger ethics!

Brilliant at Breakfast: Ex-SEC Chairman to advise Goldman Sachs -What's wrong with this picture?


Oopsie-daisies. Talk about your unexpected consequences. The highly-blogged about tête-à-tête between Jon Stewart and CNBC's Jim Cramer has exposed the very ugly underbelly of how the former hedge-fund manager made money before his TV career. Former Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) says it's time some investigator takes a closer look at Cramer:

CNN reporter Jim Acosta reflected on limited regulation of hedge fund’s and how they attracted “wealthy investors.” He then turned to former Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., once chairman of the House Government Reform Committee, who said Cramer’s the reason hedge funds should be considered for more regulation.

“I think he’s become a poster child for why hedge funds need more regulation and transparency,” Davis said.

When asked if what Cramer said was illegal, Davis admitted that it was not, but “should be. He may well have crossed the line.”

Davis suggested the powers that be “ought to be looking at” Cramer’s confessed manipulation from 2006. “I think the tragedy is over the last few years nobody’s been looking at this at all.”

Wow. A Republican calling for more regulations and ethics over the interests of the oligarchy? Will wonders never cease?


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The right's second-favorite new talking point -- right behind "Leave Rush Aloooooone!" -- is the claim that the ongoing downward spiral of the stock market is now President Obama's fault.

It's utter nonsense, of course. Indeed, a far more plausible explanation for the continuing lousy psychology of the stock market is that all the hysterical fearmongering, marked by absurd charges that we're descending into "socialism," coming from the mouths of Republicans and various right-wing talkers (most prominently Limbaugh) has created a blanket of groundless fear and suspicion around Obama's recovery program that is keeping the market in freefall.

It's been everywhere on cable TV: Larry Kudlow, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, Glenn Beck, Charles Krauthammer, Lou Dobbs, even the morning talking heads at MSNBC -- they've all been pitching the concept that this is an "Obama Bear Market" and that his "bad-mouthing" the economy to get his stimulus bill passed -- and more importantly, the shocking "socialism" of the Obama program -- is the reason the market continues its slide.

Probably the apotheosis of this was Michael Boskin's piece in the Wall Street Journal declaring that "Obama's radicalism" is tanking the markets.

That's a fine how-do-you-do: Boskin was a member of George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. In other words: One of the architects of the current economic debacle is already trying to blame it on the man upon whom the job of cleaning it all up has descended, less than two months into his tenure.

There's no chutzpah like right-wing chutzpah.

As Robert Reich explained at Salon:

The argument that Obama is somehow responsible for the collapse of Wall Street is absurd. First, every major policy that led to this collapse occurred under George W.'s watch (or, more accurately, his failure to watch). The housing and financial bubbles were created under Bush and exploded under Bush. The stock market began to collapse under Bush.

Second, it's inevitable that stocks, led by the bloated financial sector, would lose their remaining hot air as the new administration begins "stress-testing" the big banks, many of which are technically insolvent. After all, their share prices were built on a tissue of lies and dreams. Other sectors whose values were similarly distorted and distended by years of financial deception and regulatory disregard, such as housing and insurance, will also have to return to the real world before they can recover. Which could mean more stock losses.

Indeed, contrary to any radicalism, even David Brooks can see that Obama's economic program is pragmatic and centrist:

They see themselves as pragmatists who inherited a government and an economy that have been thrown out of whack. They’re not engaged in an ideological project to overturn the Reagan Revolution, a fight that was over long ago. They’re trying to restore balance: nurture an economy so that productivity gains are shared by the middle class and correct the irresponsible habits that developed during the Bush era.

The budget, they continue, isn’t some grand transformation of America. It raises taxes on energy and offsets them with tax cuts for the middle class. It raises taxes on the rich to a level slightly above where they were in the Clinton years and then uses the money as a down payment on health care reform. That’s what the budget does. It’s not the Russian Revolution.

Second, they argue, the Obama administration will not usher in an era of big government. Federal spending over the last generation has been about 20 percent of G.D.P. This year, it has surged to about 27 percent. But they aim to bring spending down to 22 percent of G.D.P. in a few years. And most of the increase, they insist, is caused by the aging of the population and the rise of mandatory entitlement spending. It’s not caused by big increases in the welfare state.

What Republicans can't really handle, of course, is confronting the reality that it was their misbegotten approach to the economy -- mass deregulation, complete "free markets," and tax cuts tax cuts tax cuts -- that was responsible for creating this mess.

So what we're actually seeing is the Right busily constructing its own fresh new wing of Planet Wingnuttia, the alternative reality they're coming to inhabit: Liberals conspired to cause the housing crisis, and therefore caused the economic collapse. Then Obama started the stock-market slide even before he was elected, and now his radical socialism is driving the market into the sub-1000 region.

Hoo boy. Get ready to deal with this nonsense for the next four years. And particularly its consequences: Wall Streeters have always shown a propensity for gullibility when it comes to right-wing talking points, and the continuing drop in the markets almost certainly reflects that.

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Watching Rick Santelli's embarrassing diatribe at the expense of the American people made me realize that these Wall Street frat boys still don't get it. America is sick and tired of the riches they have manipulated out of the system and then be lectured by people who make more money than 100 middle class workers put together. The next time I want advice on how to live I'll be sure to ask a man who was deeply involved in "derivatives."

California hates Enron and all the damage it caused us and America, but these are Santelli's peeps. I watch the Saturday FOX Stock shows religiously and he fits right in with Cavuto's crowd. Don't blame the crooked mortgage lenders who were having bidding wars to acquire their next mansion, but blame first time buyers or average Americans, the lifeblood of our society and call them "losers."

Santelli needs to own that he is the loser and if it wasn't for the gasbag insider crowd that gives his words a modicum of respect, crowds would gather outside his home with torches and pitchforks. Jane nails him and his ilk.

Rick Santelli is just the explosive Id of CNBC, saying what everyone else thinks. Somehow it's not the pervasive institutional rot, the criminal malfeasance at the highest levels, or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve telling Americans over and over again that housing prices would never go down.

They have convinced themselves that the real problem is once again people at the absolute bottom of the economic scale. If they'd only used appropriate "judgment" and lived within their means, we'd all be fine.

Chris Matthews labelling Santelli another "Sean Hannity" is cool with me because he backs up their positions, but that's what most of CNBC and FOX news are all about. On the TODAY show, Santelli went on about how all home owners should get help. That's what, like 100 million homes? Is he asking for another 10 trillion dollars? Part of President Obama's plan is to keep the values of homes as high as possible. By helping out the few, he is actually saving the overall housing market thousands of dollars per home. Do people want to see their houses lose half its value and then get a tax break? I don't think so...

With Chris Matthews, the idiot Bush Depression trader says shame on them for signing something without reading the fine print. I read it and didn't understand it either. That's why I hired a freaking mortgage broker.

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Chris got him to admit that he voted for John McCain. What a shock. We were all lied to at almost every level so these slickly dressed charlatans could pillage the country for all it was worth.

And if anyone has bought a house and tried to get a mortgage, they would know that the documentation is gibberish to most of us. We rely on the lenders to accurately navigate the system and not get abused by it. Santelli knows this too. I was lied to when I bought a house many years ago. The escrow agent even manipulated my trust and I watched what happened in California as these greedy money changers almost destroyed the entire economy.

I go to the DMV to get a license and I have to go through a series of requirements to meet what's needed in order to acquire it. If the same principle had been applied to the mortgage lenders, then people would not have been qualified to refinance or get into a house they couldn't afford. It's really that simple.

I hope he keeps it up because Americans are in need of help and not lectures from the likes of Rick Santelli. He only helps to expose the disturbed world view shared by the Bush loving-John McCain Wall Streeters.

See his Today Show spot below:

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Fear Is Still Dominant Emotion on Wall Street

Obama's got a long road ahead of him. Despite today's market gains, stabilizing this economy will be a Herculean task:

President Barack Obama yesterday told Americans that his inauguration symbolized "hope over fear," but on Wall Street, investors stuck with fear.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 332.13 points yesterday to close below 8,000 for the first time since the end of November as the largest US banks continue to bleed cash and the Congressional Budget Office casts doubt on the effectiveness of an $825 billion proposal to spend the nation out of recession.

The Dow, which ended at 7,949.09, lost 4 percent of its value, the worst Inauguration Day loss in the 113-year history of the index.

Other indexes suffered steeper losses. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed nearly 6 percent, or 88.47, to close at 1,440.86. The Standard and Poor's 500 lost more than 5 percent, or 44.90, to end at 805.22.

The sell-off in stock markets, the worst so far this year, began before Obama took the oath of office at about noon. The rout underscored the depth of a recession that many economists expect to be the worst since the Great Depression, and the challenges inherited by Obama.

In the nearly three months between his election and the inauguration, the economy shed more than 1 million jobs and the number of unemployed surpassed 11 million. And despite the injection of $350 billion by the Bush administration to shore up the nation's banks and encourage more lending, the US financial system continues to teeter.

Today held much better news, although probably not for the long haul:

Stocks mounted an impressive comeback on Wednesday, one day after a deep selloff in the financial sector pulled the broader market downward.

As was the case in the market's move down on Tuesday, bank stocks led the way on Wednesday. Driven by double-digit percentage gains for Citigroup, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 279.01 points, or 3.5%, to 8228.10. Stocks strengthened as the session wore on, with the rally spreading beyond financials into several other sectors.

The blue-chip measure was also helped by an 11% gain for International Business Machines, which forecast full-year earnings that topped Wall Street's expectations and a 12% rise in fourth-quarter profit.

The S&P 500 gained 35.02 points, or 4.4%, to 840.25. Energy stocks in particular were strong amid a jump in crude-oil prices. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite gained 66.21 points, or 4.6%, to 1507.07. Intel shares gained 3%.

Despite Wednesday's bank-led gains, the sector remains on a more than two-month long decline. Large financial firms are still susceptible to continued weakening of economic conditions and many still have bad assets left to write-down. Should banks fail to at least stabilize, investors say there is little way the market in general, can improve.


McCain's 5 Stages of Grief over the Economy

McCain Head in Hands  The implosion of Wall Street last week resulted in a near-death crisis for John McCain's presidential campaign. His post-Palin bump eviscerated, McCain was staggered by the re-emergence of the economy as the dominant issue in the 2008 election. His daily-changing positions revealed that McCain, a man who has repeatedly admitted his ignorance of economics, is struggling to cope with his diminished presidential prospects. Armchair psychologists might call the process John McCain's five stages of grief over the economy.

Denial. McCain's refusal to confront the realities of the failing Bush economy has long roots and was again on display last Monday. McCain, who has frequently described the economic slowdown as "psychological," for at least the 18th time proclaimed the "fundamentals of our economy are strong." As the Dow plummeted over 500 points, McCain reacted to the white-hot crisis on Wall Street by comically announcing his support for a 9/11-style commission to study the causes of and make recommendations to address the meltdown. Willing to kick the can down the road with his since forgotten 9/11 panel idea, McCain also took a head-in-the-sand position in opposing the government rescue of teetering insurance giant AIG:

"We cannot have the taxpayers bail out AIG or anybody else."

Anger. Sadly, McCain's denial of the obvious produced an immediate backlash from the press and the public alike. Literally within hours last Monday, McCain reversed course on the underlying strength of the American economy and declared the fundamentals of the economy to be "at great risk."

Then John McCain did what he does best - he got mad.

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Only 18,000 jobs created and unemployment on the rise

And the stock market responds:

Hiring in the U.S. slowed more than forecast in December and unemployment jumped to a two-year high, raising the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by half a point this month to ward off a recession.

Payrolls rose by 18,000, capping the worst year for job creation since 2003, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate increased to 5 percent from 4.7 percent in November, while the Institute for Supply Management said growth in U.S. service industries cooled last month.

Bondad:

Short version: this number stinks all the way around; there is no upside. For people that have been arguing for a recession it adds a ton of fuel to the fire.

 The Saturday morning stock shows should be very entertaining. Those free market/Milton Friedman zealots will be screaming that it's all Bernanke's fault. If there is a hell, they should rot there. Naomi Klein discusses these whackos quite vividly in her wonderful book.