Nate Silver has written a piece called "Why Progressives Are Batshit Crazy To Oppose the Senate Bill."  He says we need to stop being "polite" (who's polite these days?) and start being "real."  In the spirit of impoliteness and reality (realness?), he offers some numbers in order to argue that the Left is nuts not to embrace the Senate health reform bill.

In that same "no-politeness" spirit, here's my response:  Garbage in, garbage out.  Is that "real" enough for ya?   Progressives - and everyone else, for that matter - should keep fighting.

Silver's heart may be in the right place, and his math is right, but many of his assumptions are flat-out wrong.  More importantly, he fails to place his work in the proper human and political context.  It's like this:  You can build the best model in the world for predicting the outcome of hockey games.  But if you knew that sometime during the third period Rahm Emanuel was going to drive out on the ice in a Zamboni and flatten your team's entire defense, wouldn't that change your model a little?  And if you knew half the hockey players would wind up bleeding and broken ... (Oh, wait - they do. Bad example.)

Progressives would be insane to do as Silver suggests.  He tells us that "a picture's worth a thousand words"  (and then gives us 1,795 words - but who's counting).  Let's review both his analysis and his conclusions.   

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Sen. Joe Lieberman isn't backing down from his demand that health care reform not include a public option but now he has a few more requirements.

"You have to take out the Medicare buy-in. You have to forget about the public option. You probably have to take out the class act which was a whole new entitlement program that will in future years put us further into the deficit," Lieberman told CBS' Bob Schieffer Sunday.

"I want to tell you, we could pass a health care reform bill this week with more than 60 votes and it would be bipartisan if we just took a few things out of the bill as it is today," said Lieberman.

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From Hardball, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Sen. Bernie Sanders discuss the progress being made in the Senate on the health care bill. It sounds like things are getting closer to a deal finally being struck. Sen. Sanders is right about what's going on. If the Democrats were serious about putting together some real reform, they'd be talking about single-payer. I love Bernie. God knows we need about fifty more of him instead of these guys on the take from the insurance industry right now.

MATTHEWS: Let`s start, however, with the important stuff, the gang of 10 Democrats trying to get health care reform done now. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse is a Democrat from Rhode Island and Senator Bernie Sanders is an independent from Vermont.

Senator Whitehouse, your thoughts about this option, this new -- novel new plan to allow regular people to buy into the plan available to federal employees for health care? Your thoughts?

SEN. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE: I would describe it as a helpful idea that has been added to the mix. I think the acid test is whether the public option that emerges from it will create actual competition for the insurance companies who dominate so many of the states with enormous market share, and whether it will help put an end to the insurance company abuses, where you get thrown off your coverage when you have the temerity to get sick, or when if you have a preexisting condition, they won`t insure you at all, when your doctor tries to send a bill out there, refuse to pay it, all that nonsense. There`s got to be an alternative to that.

MATTHEWS: Senator Sanders, your thoughts about this new option on the table?

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS: Well, it is one of the ideas that`s out there, as Sheldon indicates. The bottom line is, many of us made it clear, we need a strong public option so the American people have a choice about something other than a private insurance company whose function in life is to make as much money as possible.

And secondly, Chris, if we are serious about cost containment, which we must be at a moment when health care costs are projected to soar, we need real competition for the private insurance companies, and that`s what the public option concept is all about.

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Sherrod Brown explains to David Shuster why he signed decided to co-sponsor Tom Coburn and David Vitter's amendment which would require members of Congress to enroll in whatever version of the public option ends up being passed in the health care bill.

Brown: Yeah, you often find out about amendments going on on the Senate floor and if my staff and I like one of the amendments we'll call an office and say, Republican or Democrat, I'd like to co-sponsor. We do that as a matter of course it happens across party lines all the time, hundreds of times a day. We did that with Sen. Coburn, nine times we said we wanted to co-sponsor--usually it takes once and they say yes--I've always accepted that. So has everybody I know in the Senate. Nine times we asked to co-sponsor and their office either just said we'll get back to you or ignored our calls and our emails because it was all a sham.

They don't, they clearly don't like the public option. They were making fun of it. Their whole game is to delay and deceive and to play political games. And when they offer an amendment saying sign up for the public option to force--tell members of Congress they have to join the public option--I think I should. I think we all should but they don't evenn like it themselves. And so it's just a little partisan game they're playing, and this is too serious for them to play those kind of games.

From Salon's War Room--Coburn, Vitter plan to ridicule public option backfires:

Now, as the Senate's debate over its version of reform legislation kicks into gear, two Republicans -- Sens. Tom Coburn and David Vitter -- have picked up that theme and are running with it. The two authored an amendment they want attached to the bill; it would require members of Congress to enroll in whatever version of the public option the final legislation creates, if it includes one.

Both Coburn and Vitter are vehement opponents of the public option, and they're hoping to prove themselves right by showing that no senator who's in his or her right mind would want their healthcare covered by it. They've gotten a surprise, though: Genuine support for their amendment from someone on the other side of the aisle -- and a proponent of the public option, at that -- Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

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Senators Franken, Dodd, and Mikulski also joined Sen. Brown in co-sponsoring the amendment. Here's Sen. Franken weighing in on the Senate floor.

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David Shuster talked to Howard Dean about where the health care bill stands in the Senate right now and whether we should not be allowing four Senators to hold up that bill.

Shuster: First Sen. Brown’s position on the public option—your thoughts.

Dean: He’s exactly right. Sherrod’s been one of the real champions of getting real health insurance. Look, what Tom Carper’s doing is silly. A trigger and all this business and opt-out and opt-in and all that—this is silly. Harry Reid’s got a decent bill on the floor, decent, it’s not great but it’s decent—it needs to pass. If they can’t pass it without real insurance reform and there isn’t any in the bill right now to speak of, then they just should go home and use reconciliation which is what they should have done in the first place. To let four Senators hold up the works in addition to the Republicans that we know aren’t interested in health insurance is a silly way to run the business.

Shuster: You mentioned Sen. Carper and his proposal being silly. Are you referring to the actual content of the policy or the politics or both?

Dean: No look, Tom is a serious guy. He’s a good guy. I served with him when we were governors together. But his proposal isn’t health insurance reform. Triggers are not health insurance reform. They’re devices put in for the health insurance industry. You know what today came out? Aetna is going to drop 600,000 people from their insurance so they can make more money. Now why is it that these Senators can’t get it in their heads that putting money in the health insurance system that we have now doesn’t work? That’s not health care reform. Knock it off! Listen to Sherrod Brown. Listen to the 56 Senators who want to do the right thing in the Democratic Party. Stop grandstanding and get this done.

Dean added that he doesn't think Sen. Nelson will actually filibuster the bill and what this means for the midterm elections.

Dean: I think an awful lot of people like me are getting awfully impatient. I think this is going to hurt a lot of people’s reelections too. People…you know the Democratic base has been incredibly demoralized by all this and it’s not going to hurt President Obama. People like him. He’s going to get reelected. It’s going to kill us in 2010 if we don’t get this thing done. The 2009 gubernatorial elections were about taxes, jobs and about getting health insurance off the plate, passing it and then start to work on some of these things like jobs. And if we don’t do that we’re going to get ourselves in big trouble as a party. We have got to get our act together here. You can’t allow four Democratic Senators to hold up the works, particularly when they get their chairmanships because they caucus with the Democratic Party. It’s not fair and I don’t think it’s right.

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December 01, 2009 C-SPAN

Senator Franken on the floor of the Senate as the Health Care debate begins.

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November 24, 2009 FOX News

Congressman Anthony Weiner takes on FOX fill-in-host Stuart Varney over the health care bill and the definition of Socialism.

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November 19, 2009 CURRENT TV SUPER NEWS

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Keith talks to Wendell Potter about the health care bill that came out of the Senate and how the insurance and pharmaceutical companies fared. Jon Walker has more over at FDL and expressed some similar concerns to those of Potter's with the bill-- Pretty Bad So Far: Eight Things Wrong With The Senate Health Bill.

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Ed Schultz asks Bernie Sanders to respond to this report from The Hill Another Independent could be a spoiler as Reid moves forward on healthcare:

With a pronounced independent streak to match his political alignment, Bernie Sanders of Vermont may be another headache for Democrats trying to cobble together 60 votes for healthcare reform in the coming weeks.

At a time when most attention is being paid to the Senate’s other, more well-known Independent, Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman, it is Sanders who could end up playing spoiler for Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). As Reid struggles to find 60 votes that will unite on procedural votes, his party’s centrists are pulling the healthcare bill politically rightward while Sanders is staking out a far-left position.

Asked if he will support Democrats on procedural votes once the healthcare bill hits the Senate floor, Sanders was repeatedly noncommital, twice telling The Hill that he intends to push for a bill that includes a government-run, public-option insurance component and refusing to guarantee his support on cloture votes.

“All I’ll say for now is that I want the strongest public option possible in the bill,” Sanders said. “Beyond that, we’re going to have to look at what develops.”

Pressed further, Sanders’s office also offered no guarantees.

Gotta' love The Hill calling support for the public option a "far-left" position. It's not "far-left" when the majority of the public supports it. Sen. Sanders was again noncommital on whether he would be willing to go so far as to filibuster the health care bill during this interview, but said he is going to fight to make sure that the bill is not just a giveaway to the insurance industries.

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November 09, 2009 News Corp

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In case we didn't get it the first time last week, Joe Lieberman went on Fox News Sunday and spat in Harry Reid's face again. So how's that promise from Joe Lieberman working out for you, Harry? We can trust Joe Lieberman, huh? Yeah right.

Transcript from Think Progress:

LIEBERMAN: A public option plan is unnecessary. It has been put forward, I’m convinced, by people who really want the government to take over all of health insurance. They’ve got a right to do that; I think that would be wrong.

But worse than that, we have a problem even greater than the health insurance problems, and that is a debt — $12 trillion today, projected to be $21 trillion in 10 years.

WALLACE: So at this point, I take it, you’re a “no” vote in the Senate?

LIEBERMAN: If the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote because I believe debt can break America and send us into a recession that’s worse than the one we’re fighting our way out of today. I don’t want to do that to our children and grandchildren.

Lieberman's promises are as empty as his rhetoric. And if Reid got any assurances from him, why is he coming on the T.V. again threatening to filibuster with the Republicans? This man should not be chairing any committees if he's going to filibuster his own caucus.

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November 04, 2009 C-SPAN

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November 04, 2009 CNN

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ALAN GRAYSON: What the Republicans have been doing is an insult to America. They`ve been dragging their feet. These are foot-dragging, knuckle-dragging Neanderthal who thinks they can dictate policy to America by being stubborn.

(END OF VIDE CLIP)

BEHAR: You`re the greatest, "knuckle - dragging Neanderthal" apparently voters in New Jersey and Virginia didn`t agree. The governors- elect in both states both Republicans. I`m joined by the man that threw those bombs, Florida Congressman Alan Grayson, congressman. Thank you for joining me. I really do enjoy you, I must tell you.

GRAYSON: Same here. I enjoy you, too.

BEHAR: But you know the governor`s races were won in Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey. And Obama stump for both of them, what`s this say about Obama`s influence these days? Is it waning or is it OK, what do you think?

GRAYSON: Well look, there`s lesson for both parties. For the Democratic Party we have to activate our vote. The Republicans activate their vote. The Democrats this year have not done as good a job as the Republicans in that regard. The voter turnout in Virginia was down by half since last year. Now, I don`t think half of all voters in Virginia disappeared. What happen was some of them felt motivated to vote. And too many of people on our side didn`t feel motivated to vote. And that`s why there was a sharp drop in Democratic performance in both states. So we have to motivate our base.

BEHAR: It was interesting the exit polls in Virginia and New Jersey, all -- both of them said they still like President Obama. That their vote had nothing to do with him. Do you agree with that?

GRAYSON: Well look, people elected Obama, they elected me, they elected the Democrats and put us in charge of the government because they want change. And they need to see more of it. We need to deliver. We need to make sure that the people who voted for us with expectations in mind have those expectations satisfied. It`s that simple. There are lessons for Republicans too. You didn`t talk about the election in New York.

BEHAR: I`m about to ask you about that one because that was one for the team.

GRAYSON: Well listen, I think we`re witnessing the disintegration of a major political party. Something that happens only about once a century. The last time that two of those counties that New York congressional district were represented by Democrats was in 1850. 1850. So I think what we`re seeing is that the tea baggers are no longer obeying the corporate pay masters.

BEHAR: It`s interesting because both Limbaugh and Palin both backed the Republican up there. And it didn`t work. I love that. Does it mean the attack machine -- what is it about the right wing attack machine. That they`re full of bluster and they`re out there all the time voicing their hatred, a lot of it. And it still doesn`t translate into votes, by and large.

GRAYSON: They`re down to 20% of Americans identify themselves as Republicans now. And even at 20% split -- they`re split and splintered and falling apart.

BEHAR: What does it about independent voters, this whole thing, do you think?

GRAYSON: Well the independent voters have a lot of say. They`re the balance of power between the two parties. But I think at this point we`re down to 1 1/2 parties. Because the Republicans just can`t seem to get it together. They have nothing to offer ordinary people. You know you ask what people want for health care, for education, for jobs, the Republicans have no answers for any of that. They`re the party of no, and no don`t cut it anymore.

BEHAR: OK and thank you very much for joining us I hope that you`re going to keep speaking out and saying those wonderful things that you say. We like them.

GRAYSON: Thank you, Joy.