John Fund Cites Nate Silver's Predictions for House Seat Losses At RightOnline Conference
John Fund at Americans for Prosperity's Right Online Conference cites Nate Silver's predictions for 2010, and the possibility of the Democrats losing 20-50 seats in the House. Nate talked about this with Ron Reagan Jr. on his radio show the other day and wrote about it at his blog Likely Voters and Unlikely Scenarios where he qualifies his predictions with this:
Is it possible that the electorate which is voting in November 2010 will be so down on the Democrats that they trust Republicans more on issues like these? Sure, it is possible -- if the enthusiasm gap is wide enough, if Obama's approval is low enough, if the health care debate has been bungled enough, and if the economy is still hemorrhaging jobs. But I'd consider it something of a worst-case scenario. That's probably the best way to regard these Rasmussen polls for the time being.
So maybe not quite as doom and gloom as Fund is making it out to be. As for the rest of his nonsense, well that's another matter. Fund goes on to claim that the Democrats' problem is they don't know how to govern as moderates. Heh. That's rich. Yeah, here we are again as Fund says, but not because the Democrats are governing from the left, but because they're governing as triangulating corporate "centrists".
In Silvers' statement.Seemed to me it was more of a warning, than a prediction.And I can honestly say I can't disagree.The party has had more than enough time to show some spine and leadership, but is still lacking in both areas.Unless The Democrats can get something done to move the country forward without the G NOP and the hapless media framing the debate, then the 2010 elections will be the least of our problems!
If the mothership returns
If the Great Galactic Eye agrees
If the Interstellar Concordium doesn't invade mother planet Glazxon
If our Zandor torpedoes affect humans
Dick Cheney will become world dominator and proceed to torture kittens for fun and profit in in basement...
I sure am trembling now... Luckily Captain Capitalism will save us...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0qzXWaDbnk
The prawns are supposed to return in a couple of years. The shit would really hit the fan then.
"When are we going to stop trying to tell elected officials what to do. Our job is to spend the taxpayers' money the best way we can." -- Tommy Watkins, Justice of the Peace, Crawford County, Arkansas
will get not the public vote in 2010.
The Republiklan party and their mean spirited economic policies that brought us our 2nd great depression will not even come near winning even 10 seats. The public soundly rejected them as too conservative in 2006 and 2008.
As I see it, the Democrats will win about 10 seats in 2010 and keep the House and Senate for 32 years. The Democrats will keep the presidency for 16 years.
Join our new progressive political party http://democratz.org and stay in the Democratic party too.
that came in with the Obama administration....but not enough realism...Obama and the rest of the Dem leadership absolutely NEED to recognize, that any and all attempts at bipartisanship are wasted.
The GOP SOP is to obstruct, and confuse EVERY single issue that Obama is working on.
The sooner Obama gets hip to that fact, the sooner he can start runnin roughshod over them and gettin some progressive legislation through.
Time for nicey-nice is over.
Fuck the GOP, AND especially the DINO's standing beside them.
I won't be holding my breath though.
Is.
The next one you meet is more stupid then the last!
republicanism is a mental illness!
Who on this planet listens to John Fund?
ALthough he might be right about "Democrats' problem is they don't know how to govern as moderates" as the dems seems to always ride to the right.
My kingdom for a true progressive democrat in the WH . . .
"I know that there are people who do not love their fellow
man, and I hate people like that! " ~ Tom Lehrer (1928 - )
At this point I think it is more likely that voters will stay home in droves, fed up with everyone.
.
but the rethug base will always come out.
.
that's hedging your bets. i would agree voters will once again stay home in lethargic indifference. never underestimate the don't care attitude of the american people. unless there is a black man running for prez or a woman or it's time to shout down with empty rhetoric against health care reform or dissing the promotion of an empty headed hilbilly from alaska...unless those factors come into play there will be few votors electing to exercise their voting rights.
People who aren't afraid to stand up and say "Yeah, I'm a Liberal. YOU WANNA MAKE SOMETHING OF IT?!"
Right now you really have a conservative party and a batshit insane party.
!
Some stuff you can't make up!
http://democratz.org
Ironic name fund
Both fiduciary, a theologically.
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
for that 'relieved' feeling!
Some stuff you can't make up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgOfudoufDE
Diabolus est Deus Inversus
contribute to any true Democrats that want to take on any of the Blue Dogs - they need to go. Oh, and I never, ever, and I do mean never vote for Republicans, it's truly siding with the devil, so this is one voter who won't be casting votes the other way. The worst Democrat might still be better than the most "progressive" Repub - I could be wrong, too.
You are correct! Republicanism of the 21st century is a twisted, pernicious debasement of what "conservatism" used to mean.
You are incorrect! Don't buy into the false-dichotomy that all republicans are bad and all dems are good. You have extraordinary creeps on both sides and change needs to come in the form of a third party.
My conservative father insists that one must vote for a party rather than the individual. This ends up in you having to rationalize voting for criminals, sexual deviants, etc. and putting the least qualified person in the seat.
We have a "lowest common denominator government" and we need to lose this.
The Party leadership takes the progressives for granted. They believe we have no place else to go so they think they can shaft us with watered down Bills in an attempt to appease the GOP. This is stupid. First, the GOP never votes for their Bills in the end and so they have only weakened what could have been good. Secondly, we need to send them a message that while we won't vote GOP, we can sit home a cycle or two if need be. It would be painful, but if it is only way to gain strength, it may be necessary.
Single Payer Action Confronts Barney Frank
those polls are fucking blatantly skewed and it is well known.
Some stuff you can't make up!
I listened to several of the speakers at that shindig Saturday. Yeah, I don't know why I punish myself like that either. They had some doozies for speakers. I have no idea if Fund is right or wrong but I do know that the people they chose to speak at their meeting were some of the worst. The lead off speaker was Joe the Plumber, does that tell you all you need to know?
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
have herpes sores on their lower lips (as it looked like Fund did) from sucking each others dicks? They have been spreading the win the house back BS for about 2 weeks now.
I didn't notice any other sores on anyone but the stupid was spreading all over the place.
By the way they are showing this meeting again on c-span right now but they are about three or so speakers into it by now. Erick Erickson is speaking now and blowing bull shit in the form of a speech.
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
c-span gives these guys and their organizations so much so much tee vee time. It seems like when they are not covering the house they are covering conservatives. I know, it's that far left media. (snark)
I think to be fair, c-span gave about equal coverage to the netroots gathering last week.
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
and those people live in a different universe. I heard that Obama was a racist, called the cops stupid and heard that Palin was more qualified because she was governor of the largest state. I was nice and told them that they were misinformed. I wanted to smack them along side their heads. Right wing talk radio has taken over everything east of the Cascades.
Hey, I was there too! Got to spend a morning with my elderly father's coffee klatch and danged if those geezers don't actually believe the whole "death panel" nonsense. My jaw did drop when the pater actually agreed with me when I said there should be Medicare for all, don't know if he was just humoring me though.
I think his generation will be the last to enjoy the safety net constructed by FDR after the Depression. I wonder what sort of safety net Obama is constructing for *our* generation?
that has to spend time in Eastern Washington. It is often referred to as Northen Utah. If you are a Washington constituent, it is time to get on Cantwell's case. The Senator has never taken an outfront position on anything. She needs to step up on healthcare reform and support the public option and the President. Good grief-she is on the Finance Committee and has the potential to be an asset. We need to hound her office for her to start representing OUR interests.
Now, there's some change Barack Obama can believe in.
(And will deserve.)
And then the "conservative" Dems will blame the "progressive" Dems for the losses while the Republicans grin and smack their lips.
What a Party! It's hopeless.
There is no enthusiasm for rethugs. But if Obama caves on the public option millions of Dem voters are going to sit out the 2010 election and all that bs about the rethugs being a dead party will look like the hooey it is.
There are three things wrong with the Democrats right now:
1. Rahm Emmanuel
2. Blue Dogs
3. Harry Reid
1 caused 2. We in the Netroots can put pressure on Reid and the Dogs that are up for election in 2010.
Pelosi, Sebelius, and the rest of the gang feel left out!
1. Rahm Emanuel.
2. Blue Dogs.
3. Harry Reid.
4. Barack Obama.
4 chose 1 for his current position, supports Reid for his, and never talks back to the Blue Dogs.
Leadership?
What would it matter.
The American public like taking it up the ass unlubed. It makes them feel free and fills them with a sense of liberty. They really don't care which party is doing the driving.
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
oh noooo...granny died cause she ran out of money. Thank goodness we never got those death panels!
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
Grannies and children are dying every day because they have no food and or no health care. Then there are people who, for religious reasons, refuse health care and allow their family members to die.
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
But they're FREE!...and breathing the air of LIBERTY!!
"Anyone that makes less than $150K in this country, has no business voting Republican."
"Democratic Party strategist James Carville offered up a new strategy for Democrats to follow in their battle to reform health care: Let the GOP defeat it, then defeat the GOP at the ballot box.
That, Carville implied, would backfire on the GOP in upcoming elections."
"Put a bill out there, make them filibuster it," Carville said. "Make them be what they are — the party of no. ... And you know what? Run on it. Let them kill it. Let them kill it with the interest group money, then run against them. That's what we ought to do."
[crickets]
tto suffer and die while we implement that plan.
a Democrat more interested in winning elections than helping the people. Why not keep the Democrats in power so they can screw us over some more?
If the Democrats fail to pass meaningful healthcare reform with a public option, it will be "Clinton healthcare failure of 93" all over again and the Dems will loose seats big time in 2010 as well they should. If they fail with the majority they have, they deserve what they get. I wonder if Carville is working as a sort of double agent for little Mary. His punditry has been lousy for a long time.
...would it make if the dems did lose 50 seats in the house? As it stands now, the fucking blue dogs are as good as repugs on any important issue anyway...
Has Rachel Maddow shamed some in the Media into doing some actual factual reporting? This woman has been so impressive lately you have to stand back in awe of her. She is factually on the mark; detailed in information, accurate in her data, thorough in connecting sequences of events from the past to present of political operatives who hoped to once again thwart Insurance-Healthcare Reform. Her reporting has been so powerful that it has led to the firing of one of the Insurance Healthcare Reform’s biggest Opponent, Mr. Armey.
Bottom line is she comes prepared.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/8/17/76791...
She was professionally prepared yesterday and she was more impressive than anyone there. While they played with their BB guns she was firing away with the critical force of facts.
Say what you mean. Mean what you say. But don't say it mean.
...to what journalism used to be like in this country.
When is the last time you saw someone come on MTP prepared for a serious discussion with notes in hand, never, that's when. I think we should be referring to her as "Dr. Maddow" to give her due respect and bring to the attention of others just what excellent credentials she has earned and why people should listen to what she brings to the table.
Then lost my breakfast, thanks C&L! I love the fat and pastey white audience but when the talk comes to threats to freedom and liberty I simply have to vomit.. The level of delusion to which pastey and fat white people conjugate is beyond me, and I'm sort of pastey white myself. Hedonism has got nothing on them baby, these people are in it for themselves, period.
don't know about losing 50 seats on the dem side, but unless they begin to make moves befitting a party in contol, they will lose seats as their contituency that put them in office scurries elsewhere. i know tht i'm currently looking into other options. one of those options is definitely not to drift to the dreaded repulican hypocrit side. hear me loudly and clearly, i would never side with the repulbican side and if they are of the mind that it really doesn't matter whether after i leave i join them or not. the dwindled numbers will be enough to make a difference. i can only speak for myself, but if i see that happening, i would reluctantly go back to the party that ousted them initially.
but if the Democrats continue to cave and disappoint they will loose seats simply because Dems and Indys sit the election out. The Dems are not giving us any reason to vote for them and every reason to simply stay home. If they fail to give us health care reform with a public option the activists and those that worked so hard for Obama just won't be there. If the Dems can't come together with the majority they have, then they are worthless. All this bi-partisan outreach is beyond stupid and insulting to their supporters. Name me the last time a Republican did anything bi-partisian.
The GOP thanks you for your analysis of the Democrats dilemma.
And I remind everyone that health care is only one issue among many. If you think that bailing on the Democrats is the right way to get anything else of importance done, then I remain confused....
Bottom line (since we're talking the SEnate):
95% of Democrats would support public option
0% of Repubicans would support public option
Name me the last time the republicans did anything but screw the people on behalf of corporations and the top 2%?
Rush Limbaugh is what a smart person thinks a stupid bigot sounds like.
lost in 2008!
edit: and in 2004 and 2006.
a lot of so-called Democrats are going to lose their seats, but only to be replaced by real Democrats.
So we aren't getting the public option. OK. I'll just have to accept it as political reality.
But I think we'll see something, yes that ineffective co-op idea, and a Bill that all Democrats will then support. And put the onus on the Republicans to support or not.
Either way, the Dems will have their 2010 slogan:
Democrats gave you Social Security. Democrats gave you Medicare. Now Democrats have given you Health Care reform.
(and while it might not fit, there's also the War on Poverty, which in 5 years reduced elderly poverty by more than 70%)
And let the chips fall where they may.
Reality check for you people who want to primary Blue Dogs....go for it! But before you invest too much, do your homework into the political demographics of the districts/states that are involved.
Historians will have a hard time finding one piece of significant social legislation in the past 70 years that was authored by the Republican party. Not one......
When I run into either confused old people or politically naive young peoplel.....and all ages in between, who still think the answer to anything is the Republican party, I just ask them to name one thing that
Republicans have ever done to invest in social progress in this country.
The GOP: America for Corporations
The Democratic Party: America for People
... are you our new DNC intern?
Senate healthcare deal could cost 100 House votes
I hope they do lose all 50 bluedogs in the House, and all Conrad - Lincoln seats in the Senate. It will send a message to the rest of these bastards that when we voted for DEMOCRATIC change, we voted for FDR type change. Not Clinton DLC republican-lite change!
After two years, the repukes will totally destroy what is left of this country, drive us into a great depression (officially), and enable us to elect some real democrats in 2012.
Unfortunately, they will be able to gerrymander the shit out of everything in 2011, but the democrats have no one to blame but themselves.
The republicans are so fucking stupid, they would see any victories as approval of their idiotic catastrophic policies, instead of disgust with the democrats for acting like them.
Rush Limbaugh is what a smart person thinks a stupid bigot sounds like.
This melting pot of ours, will most definitely not be answering their prayers in 2010; if and only if, the voter turnout evident in 2008 remains vigil in it's opposition to the fascist and theocratic perversion polluting our current Democratic form of governance.
Organizing is a must to defend our secular creed. Because, just as the capitalist principal allows the rich to get richer and the big to be obtained by the bigger, our civil rights will be directed accordingly. When the Corporations are free to influence our laws, as they have done in the past and continue to do, our rights will be retarded unfairly.
And for those reflecting a fascist ideology, I say F-off, your theocratic BS will fail, as evolution will see too it, that it does... "All in due time".
Thank you Heather √
Study the symptoms not the virus...
Because they will have been unable to deliver on the promises it was seen that they made, so the 'hopey/changey' crowd may stay home...
and because the GOPuke SCUM/Cabloids will have filled the heads of the moronic "abridge Murkin" so full of shit that their stunted cognitive capacitoes will be extended past their usable limits...
and because Obama's influence will have (already has) waned that any possible long-term "coat-tail's" will have been wholly vitiated by the propaganda of the Rightardz...
and because the "reputation" of the Dims for crass compromises, "unlimited spending," and increasing "taxes" will be the focus of the elections...
I think it altogether possible--indeed likely--the Dims will lose their dominance--although not their majority--in the House, and will once again lose the "60" in the Senate...
The Pukes and others can (DO) say that that's what the Dims voted for when they 'elected' Obama, and not be far wrong...
A lot of the teabaggers and deathers have been intimidated into believing that it's not patriotic to try to improve your standard of living. Reform health care? Energy? Finance? You must be some sort of evil communist!
...and while you're at it, take this quarter and go downtown and see if you can get a rat to gnaw that wart off your lip.....hehe, just kidding (line from Uncle Buck)
I'm not buying it for a minute. Nice pitch to the wing nuts...but we are quite as stupid ...the progressives anyway, as we were back in the days of the big actor. Dream on righties!
Nate Silver may well be correct, but that does not mean that John Fund and the G-NO-P will be the winners in 2010 by default. It does NOT have to play out that way. IF the liberal progressive Democrats and Independents support alternate candidates, there is the opportunity to effect REAL CHANGE.
(1) G-NO-Pers and DINOs can be challenged at the PRIMARY level, with truly liberal progressives.
(2) If the efforts of (1) fail, then there is ALWAYS the OPTION of a liberal progressive WRITE-IN.
If the Netroots that were so successful in 2006 and 2008 can be channeled into a rebellion against the DINOs, the DLC Corporatists, and the G-NO-Pers, either:
(A) the liberal wing of the Democratic Party will be replace the DINOs and some of the G-NO-Pers,
(B) a really liberal progressive THIRD Party will emerge from the ashes of the DINOs, OR
(C) the G-NO-Pers may gain seats in both the House and Senate.
Personally, I would rather see NO HEATH CARE bill pass this session, THAN have a Corporatist-written equivalent to Medicare Part D to contend with -- yet another half-assed program designed to strip-mine the US Treasury for Corporate profits.
Granted, much has changed since the days of the Bull Moose Party, but it WAS EFFECTIVE then, and a viable 3rd Party might well emerge this time around. I am both resolute, and hopeful. It will take some hard work, but I am willing to do what I can. (Could this be the "shovel-ready" jobs that Obama spoke of?
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
-- John F. Kennedy
I am pretty sure the only people that will vote Republican in 2010 will be either very wealthy, or so stupid they already forgot this whole mess started under Bush and Cheney.
these type of stories. Why not run the positive stuff that is getting done? This only feeds into the ego of the heartless pubes and makes people feel defeated when actually, we're a long ways from that. What about the CC companies jacking up rates before new regulations take hold on Thursday. Why not the story about all the new sponsors pulling ads from beck, including Walmart? Why not a story about several people packing guns today at a healthcare rally, or Sanford's wife kicking him to the curb? And where is the story about the The Family, that thinks it's okay to rape children as long as their the new breed of fundies? Quit giving in to the negative, that's what Huffpo is for.
Freeze the video at 1:08.
Tell me that doesn't look like a snapshot from 1966. My goodness, the Republican party looks like they never age. 43 years and they look exactly the same.
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